As AI Reshapes Jobs, Workers Could Face New Career Paths

Between 6 million and 16 million U.S. workers may need to change jobs by 2035 as AI and automation reduce demand for some occupations, according to a McKinsey Global Institute report published Sept. 29. McKinsey’s base estimate is about 11 million, with the final number depending on how quickly companies adopt automation and how much it cuts labor demand.

The overall job outlook is less concerning than the challenge of getting workers into new roles. McKinsey estimates that automation could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of roughly 36 million jobs over the next decade. At the same time, growth in the AI value chain and the wider economy could generate demand for more than 40 million. For about 25 million affected workers, growth in their current occupations could make up for the losses, even if their jobs change. The other 11 million would need to move into different occupations. As the report puts it, “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity.”

The jobs on each side of that shift look very different. About 57% of growing employment could be in the top two wage quintiles, led by healthcare, construction, and management. More than 70% of declining employment could be in the bottom two, especially in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Workers in those three groups make up more than 75% of those who may need to switch occupations.

For many, the transition won’t be straightforward. McKinsey estimates that only about one in seven workers who need to change occupations has a clear path that requires little or no retraining. Credentials pose a major hurdle: about 85% of growing jobs require one, either by law (38%) or because employers prefer it (47%). To meet the need, roughly 770,000 workers a year would have to move between occupational groups, about 3.6 times the historical average.

The impact reaches well beyond workers who switch occupations. The report says more than 70% of workers may need some form of reinvention, as new tasks could account for over 15% of their time. A cashier, for instance, might spend less time processing payments and more time helping customers and monitoring self-checkout. Whether their job grows, shrinks, or stays steady, most workers will need to keep developing their skills.

McKinsey groups the most important skills into three categories:

• Essential skills open up more career options.
• Enabling skills help workers move into higher-paying jobs.
• Empowering skills prepare workers for continuous change.

Job postings already show the growing importance of that last group. Since 2022, demand for AI fluency has risen about 11-fold, and demand for adaptability about fivefold. Demand for willingness to learn, resilience, and curiosity has roughly tripled.

McKinsey advises HR leaders to focus on skills rather than job titles. They should identify which employees can move quickly into growing roles, who would benefit from targeted upskilling, and which positions can’t be filled internally. The report also recommends tracking redeployment and internal fill rates alongside cost savings. Employers can widen the talent pool by easing credential requirements, using skills assessments, and recognizing relevant experience. Companies with agile talent management programs, McKinsey reports, will have an edge as skill needs evolve. 

Grace Turney is a St. Louis-based writer, editor, artist, and former journalist and librarian. She holds a Master of Library & Information Science (MLIS) and has nearly a decade of experience writing both full time and as a freelancer. See more of her work at graceturney17.wixsite.com/mysite.

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